June 28, 2013: U.S. diplomats are
trying to ease tensions between Ethiopia and Egypt. Egyptian politicians
were caught on live microphones discussing ways to stop Ethiopia’s Nile
River dam projects. The options discussed included covert military
attacks and supporting rebel groups –in other words, the Egyptians were
vetting war options. The U.S. has proposed that Ethiopia and Egypt
establish a joint working group to examine the impact of the Grand
Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).
The U.S. has urged Ethiopia to
minimize the impact of the dam on downstream nations. The Egyptian
leaders were initially embarrassed but they discovered that the Egyptian
people rally around the Nile. Despite its own numerous internal
troubles, the Egyptian government has continued to threaten Ethiopia
should Ethiopia fail to suspend dam construction. Egypt has diplomatic
and political power. However, threatening Ethiopia with covert attack
invites retaliation by Ethiopia and at the moment Egypt is far less
stable than Ethiopia. Egypt lacks the logistical capacity and long-range
strike weapons to conduct a sustained military operation. Conceivably
they could use the Nile River as a supply line, but barges on the river
would be very susceptible to interdiction by air attack, mines or other
forms of interdiction. (Austin Bay)
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