Nearly a year after the talks facilitated
by Kenya between the Ethiopian government and Ogaden National Liberation
Front (ONLF) rebels stalled in October 2012, there are signs that the
process may restart. Ostensibly, it was the ONLF’s refusal to recognise
the Ethiopian constitution that halted the initial dialogue, but that
issue covers more fundamental divides, and these remain. Nevertheless
there are solid reasons why this is a promising time for both parties,
as well as neighbouring countries and other international partners, to
try to renew meaningful talks. Two decades of deadly conflict –
especially an intense five-year, relatively successful government
counter-insurgency campaign – have exhausted the local Ethiopian-Somali
population sufficiently to push the ONLF back to the table. Likewise,
Addis Ababa’s determination to accelerate economic growth, especially by
exploiting the resources of its lowland peripheries, not least
hydrocarbons, also argues for sustainable peace.
Ethiopia’s commitment to the talks is
important but undermined by a parallel strategy of piecemeal deals with
disgruntled ONLF members. Concessions to the rebels risk alienating the
“loyalist” stronghold that the federal government has built up within
the majority clan – the Ogaadeni – in the Ogaden region, formally called
the Somali National Regional State (SNRS). These tactics have proved
useful in the counter-insurgency campaign, but a meaningful peace
process will have to address the clan tensions and exacerbated
intra-communal violence they have also deepened.
The drive for peace has suffered from the
death in August 2012 of longstanding Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, who
took a strong personal interest in resolving the Ogaden conflict and had
the power to negotiate a deal. Though his successor, Hailemariam
Desalegn, is a potential dove, he lacks the political strength to
challenge the military-security hawks who led the counter-insurgency
operations and are, at best, sceptical of the need for a deal with the
weakened ONLF.
The ONLF’s leadership lacks a unified
vision of the talks’ outcome, shifting along a spectrum of options,
between reconciliation with the state in return for significant autonomy
and outright secession. Though the Ethiopian constitution formally
allows for secession, it is not a real option for the government and is
complicated by pan-Somali irredentist dreams, driven by the Ogaadeni
clan’s trans-national reach. In its attempts to guard against the
subversion of its cause by wider Somali interests, the ONLF has been
forced to look for allies further afield, especially Eritrea, whose
invaluable tactical support has embroiled an internal Ethiopian issue in
wider regional rivalries. Unless its regional relations, especially
with Eritrea but also with Somalia, improve, Addis Ababa will continue
to view the Ogaden issue through a national security lens.
Kenya’s involvement in the peace talks is
based on security cooperation with Ethiopia, especially over Somali
issues, as well as growing aspiration to increase bilateral economic
ties. Trans-national clan links also pushed it to take on facilitation,
led by a team of Kenyan Ogaadenis, including a government minister, two
parliamentarians and an ex-civil servant. However, Nairobi was
distracted by its March 2013 election, which partly contributed to loss
of momentum in the process. The team has now had its mandate renewed by
President Uhuru Kenyatta’s government, but its task is complicated by
the growing instability in Kenya’s Somali counties and the Kenyan
military intervention (under the African Union Mission in Somalia,
AMISOM) in neighbouring southern Somalia – two regions dominated by the
Ogaadeni clan.
Balancing Ogaadeni interests in the three
neighbouring states would make it more possible in the longer term to
build sustainable regional peace. The international community –
traditional donors and new economic actors interested in Ethiopia’s
resource-rich peripheries alike – should give their attention to renewed
talks. Development aid and economic partnerships could significantly
improve prospects for Ethiopian-Somali communities exhausted by years of
counter-insurgency, marginalisation and political violence. But
the peace talks can only transform sub-regional economic integration if
they address fundamental governance issues – especially resolution of
historical Ethiopian-Somali grievances.
A meaningful peace process requires
unprecedented concessions from both sides and, potentially, enhancement
of Kenya’s role from facilitator to guarantor, as well as the
channelling of technical support through the regional peace and security
organisation, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD).
To improve the prospects of a new round of talks, the parties could
consider a number of options:
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a greater role for Kenya’s good offices in light of its shared security concerns with Ethiopia and the shared stakes of its Ogaadeni facilitators for regional peace. IGAD could also conceivably play a role, especially through its Conflict Early Warning and Response Mechanism’s (CEWARN) Rapid Response Fund designed to prevent and mitigate pastoralism-related conflict;
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shared acknowledgement of the post-1991 devolved administration’s achievements, especially the investments of the last five years, and of the potential for further reforms in the regional government (in partnership with the existing SNRS administration), particularly if a balance is maintained between ensuring security and pursuing much needed development; again, IGAD’s technical programs on pastoralism could be supportive;
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a potential role for both traditional clan- and state-based justice in accounting for crimes committed during the conflict and achieving reconciliation within Ogaadeni sub-clans and with other Somali clans, perhaps including a commission of inquiry, led by neutral Ethiopian and Kenyan elders, into the 50-year legacy of conflict in the region;
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commitment to greater transparency of the trade and customs regime in SNRS, including creative concessions, eg, incentives to pay duty on cross-border Somali trade with Kenya and Somaliland; and
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recognition of the federal government’s authority over oil and natural gas concessions, but also shared commitment to public scrutiny of exploration’s impact on pastoral livelihoods and consultation on regional social and economic development if commercial exploitation starts.http://www.crisisgroup.org
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